The air cargo demand decline reached 4.8% in March 2026 compared to the same month last year, driven largely by geopolitical disruptions affecting major Middle Eastern hubs, according to data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) on April 29, 2026.
Global air cargo capacity measured in available ton-kilometers fell 4.7% year-over-year in March, with international operations declining 6.8%. The slowdown followed typical post-lunar New Year seasonal softness that deepened the overall contraction.
“Air cargo demand declined 4.8% in March this year compared to last year, primarily due to geopolitical disruptions affecting key centers in the Arabian Gulf region. The timing of the usual slowdown following the lunar New Year holiday deepened this decline,” said Willie Walsh, Director General of IATA, adding that underlying demand trends remain strong and recent updates from the World Trade Organization and International Monetary Fund point to growth throughout 2026.
Willie Walsh, Director General, IATA
Operating Environment Factors Affecting Air Cargo
Global industrial production expanded 3.1% year-over-year in February, marking the 38th consecutive month of growth. International merchandise trade increased 8.0% in the same period. However, aircraft fuel prices surged 106.6% year-over-year in March, alongside crude oil price increases of 43.1% and refining margin gains of 320%.
Manufacturing confidence remained in growth territory during March, though declining slightly from February. The Purchasing Managers Index stood at 51.4 points, while new export order requests reached 50.1 points—both above the 50-point threshold separating expansion from contraction, signaling positive demand conditions for air cargo services.
Regional Performance in March 2026
Middle East carriers experienced the steepest regional decline, with demand falling 54.3% year-over-year and capacity dropping 52.4%. Asia-Pacific airlines posted growth of 5.4% in demand with 5.0% capacity increase. North American carriers saw demand decline 1.2% with capacity down 1.1%.
European carriers achieved 2.2% demand growth and 4.2% capacity expansion. Latin American and Caribbean airlines grew 1.8% in demand with 5.1% capacity gains. African carriers recorded the strongest regional performance at 7.0% demand growth, despite 4.6% capacity reduction year-over-year.
Trade Route Performance and Market Dynamics
Air cargo performance diverged sharply across major trade routes. The Africa-Asia route led growth at 22.6% year-over-year and has expanded for nine consecutive months. The Asia-Europe route continued its 37-month growth streak, increasing 14.2%. Intra-Asia traffic remained strong with 7.5% growth over 29 consecutive months.
Routes connected to the Arabian Gulf faced substantial headwinds from Middle Eastern conflict. Europe-Middle East shipping dropped 57.6%, while Middle East-Asia declined 58.6%, both marking single-month declines. The Asia-North America route posted modest 0.8% growth after two months of expansion.
According to IATA, air cargo networks continue delivering flexibility to support global supply chains while adapting to geopolitical, operational, and tariff pressures. Walsh noted that fuel prices and supply dynamics in coming months will signal the sector’s ability to weather current challenges. IATA represents approximately 360 airlines, operating more than 80% of global air traffic. The statistics include both international and domestic scheduled air cargo operations from IATA member and non-member carriers.
